The Final Update:
Ladies and Gentlemen, we finally have official notification of the release date, drumrolls please....
7th March 2008, Friday
After weeks of speculation, and waiting, and more waiting, we finally can release half a sigh of relief... now onwards to Singapore!!!
Another Update:
If you didn't know already, two different types of results that holds much importance to this Malaysian will may be released this week, the first is what this whole post is supposed to be about, the 2007 Singapore A-Level results, an the other is the 2008 Malaysian General Election Results. Since the bloody callous highly efficient but cautious MOE has not decided to notify us of the date of the results release, we are all impatiently cursing anxious but patiently waiting for MOE to get that figured out.
Update:
Ok, people, this update is dated 29th February 2008, and the neither the results nor the notification of the date is out. This means that other than the obvious fact that the already small probability that the release is today is now zero, the probability that the release date is the 3rd and 4th has diminished greatly to less than 5% combined (in other words, don't count on it, but don't count on MOE either). The area of highest probability is on the 6th (as predicted by the algorithm) or 7th with at least 85% probability, 5th is marginally probable, I would give it 5%, and the remaining 5% for a date after the 7th.
My plan, for the information of those already in Singapore, is that I'm leaving on Tuesday night, arriving on Wednesday morning in Singapore. I've got accomodation, so don't worry about that.
An overview of the entry:
This is an entry that will attempt to make an educated guess on the release date of the 2008 Singapore GCE A-Levels results. I cannot assure you that I've not made any faulty mathematical assumption that will undoubtedly thwart the final answers and estimations. I also have to inform you that I'm working with very limited data, which will lead to crude approximations of probabilities. Lastly, I apologise in advance if I've inadvertently led you (the readers) to experience any form of distress, whether due to planning based on the given mathematical results, undue emotional anxiety or in any other unforseen way.
The Algorithm:
I've used the data of the previous release dates of the Singapore A-level results to deduce an algorithm which may describe how the dates were chosen. First, the data is as follows...
6/3/1996 Wed
6/3/1997 Thurs
6/3/1998 Fri
6/3/1999 Sat
4/3/2000 Sat
3/3/2001 Sat
6/3/2002 Wed
6/3/2003 Thurs
5/3/2004 Fri
4/3/2005 Fri
1/3/2006 Wed
2/3/2007 Fri
The possible algorithm which may have been used is this...
The date of release is the 6th of March unless the 6th of March falls on a Monday, Tuesday, Sunday or [Saturday (with effect after 2001)]
If the 6th is a Sunday or [Saturday (after 2001)], the results will be released on the previous "working day" i.e. [Saturday (before 2002)] or [Friday (after 2001)]
If the 6th is a Monday or Tuesday, the results will be released on a random March date (it was Saturday twice, Friday once and Wednesday once).
This algorithm is solely based on the previous years' data, and it is the simplest algorithm possible, taking into account as few variables as possible. My estimation is that there is about a 50% chance that an algorithm is totally non-existant, another 30% that there is such a system, but there are a few errors in the factors, and a 20% chance that it is true.
Assuming the algorithm is true, the 2008 A-level results will fall on the 6th of March since this year, that day is a Thursday.
Additional information:
- A separate analysis on the date of NOTIFICATION of the release reveals that it is quite common for the the notification date to be only 2 days before the release date. The longest recorded gap is 5 days, (it spanned a weekend, 24/2/2006, Friday to 1/3/2006, Wednesday), while the shortest is a gap of 2 days, occuring for all years before 2005)
- If there is no notification today, (25 February) there is a 70% chance that the results will on be released next week. The earliest predicted release is 29 February, a Friday. Previously, when the release date was a Friday, the notification was made once on a Monday, once on a Tuesday, and twice on Wednesday
-Therefore the following probabilities are true based on limited data
P(Notification on x given that results on 29 Feb)
when x (date) is
25/2 = 25%
26/2 = 25%
27/2 = 50%
Do not be thrown off by the large probabilities, the actual probability of that day being the release date is (the given probability x probability that the results are released on the 29th)
I think I wrote a very long time ago, that there were a couple of Photoshop projects which I have created for my sister. Here they are, the first is for a presentation on Mesopotamia, the second for the Sajak Anak Laut, and the last for the Prosa Tradisional "Hikayat Bayan Budiman"
Not very sure what happened to this two entries... They just disappeared into thin air, like...like... when the ISA people come and arrest you without trial. I'm still looking for them, but I fear they have been kept in some prison somewhere in the Ulu-ulu place in Malaysia. But, don't fret, they can still win in the General Election from there.
This entry is about a theory of MBTI - Blog Characteristic Correlation, so if you're not interested, or really don't want to bother taking the time to understand the MBTI system, just skip this entry, because it will be hard to follow the reasoning (which has, by the way, nothing to do with regression, other than the fact that correlation is the mathematical opposite of regression, and that annoying "re-" obsession).
So, let's get to work... using known MBTI profiles associated with known blogs, I shall now attempt to speculate correlations between the two aspects, starting with mine...
NTs - The Knowledge-seeker temperament creates blogs that are usually philosophical, containing many abstract concepts and issues, causing it to be sometimes very hard to follow for the layperson. They are more or less information-based, and used as a platform to disseminate discoveries, theories etc. and also a place for either personal discussion or to stimulate thinking in others.
INTP (myself) - The NT temperament creates a blog that contains more knowledge-based information than the average NT, but due to the P effect, individual entries may lack organisation which makes it increasing harder to get around. The I causes it to be even less interpersonal with more emphasis to intrapersonal dialogue, or sort of a monologue written out. Also, there may be some warped humour. Grammar is also given a lot of emphasis.
ENTP - Once again, the NT temperament creates an informational blog, with more discussion rather than emotional rantings. The P makes entries a little disorganised, but more spontaneous. The E factor, however, softens the hard-ness of the issue since the author takes more effort in communicating his ideas to an audience rather than making it a self-fulfilling task. Grammar is somewhat as good but languange is kept less technical and straight-forward. It's all about the communication. Humour is somewhat better too. By the way, if you (the person I'm referring to in this paragraph) read this, I need a data check and balance. It should pique your interest.
NFs - The Ideal-seeking temperament, and personally, I like the blogs generated by people of this temperament, the blogs tend to be very private diary-ish, combined with attempts at understanding life, though it gets a little whine-ish at times, but takes into accounts their own feelings and also others. The warm types, these people.
INFJ - The blog tends to be an outpouring of personal emotion and problems, since an introverted NF tend to keep their problems away from the general public and prefer to channel the emotions somewhere else. It makes you symphatise, if not empathise, with the author. The J makes him a loyal and regular author to the blog, and makes him treat it as a confidante. Feeling tend to take precedence over other issues since the F factor is present, with the N philosophical twist.
ENFP- If you like listening to outright and loud complaints, this type's blogs is just the place for you, and when not complaining, they are usually passionately discussing a topic that hold their interests at that point of time, but don't expect follow-ups. The P factor makes their mood while blogging rather hard to guess. One entry could be all emotional, while the next may be passionate and another full of anger at a person. Entries may be frequent if the author is bored and has a lot of time to spare since their extravertedness demands frequent outpouring of ideas and emotions.
ENFJ- My favourite type of blog, it combines the good points of the above two types, the loyalty, warmness and closeness of the INFJ, and the passion and the flair of the ENFP. There are regular bloggers who make great story-tellers, they make you want to be interested about their life, written out lke a true novel. There are ups and sometimes there are downs, but the author shares the joy and makes you symphatise in the down times. Never abrasive, and ever-charming.
I know it's a bad idea to start any entry with a dash of etymology, but I must do it...
Relate and its derivatives come from the root word "relatus", Latin for "brought back".
And if you were wondering, the constant use of entry titles with the prefix re- was a pure coincidence, until about 5 minutes ago...
Since today is the day when, for some unknown reason, people who have partners give each other gifts because St. Valentine, who isn't married, by the way, decided to do just that. And someone had to throw in a cherub named Cupid somewhere in between just so that archery will never go out of fashion. If only love was that easy... just like Midsummer's Night Dream, sometimes we fall for asses and it's all the cherub's fault.
I'm a rather good mood, since the materialistic aspect of the day hasn't got to me yet (hey, Cupid, great job there...and no, I'm not being sarcastic), and so I'll share a nice song with you now...
This song is titled, "Journey to The Past", by the late Aaliyah, OST - Anastasia. This song is eclipsed by the other famous Anastasia song, "At the Beginning" by Richard Marx and Donna Lewis (I think). It's a great song, and I like her voice... and the show, which I last watched slightly less than a decade ago, is rather good too.
But of course, I must also wish you a Happy Chinese New Year of the Muridae family (or of the Rodensia order), or if you are not as bored as I am and got a lot of better things to do than to read Wikipedia, it's the year of the Rat, Mouse, Gerbil, Hamster.., and any other creature than run on spinning wheels. This a special greeting from me, enjoy the contraption...
Damn you Youtube, making a perfectly clear video all blurred up... OK, not much time tonight, going somewhere, (to be exact, about 60 km to the North, to a place called Seri Kembangan, where the air is thicker with the KL car exhaust fumes, and the trees are not as healthy, and the roads are not as safe... etc.)
Only two more episodes to the Season 3 Finale of House on AXN, yay, then it's on to Season 4, if I ever get around to downloading them. And if that corn of my left foot works up again, I swear I'm going to get a cane.
