099 Results!!!

The Final Update:
Ladies and Gentlemen, we finally have official notification of the release date, drumrolls please....

7th March 2008, Friday

After weeks of speculation, and waiting, and more waiting, we finally can release half a sigh of relief... now onwards to Singapore!!!

Another Update:
If you didn't know already, two different types of results that holds much importance to this Malaysian will may be released this week, the first is what this whole post is supposed to be about, the 2007 Singapore A-Level results, an the other is the 2008 Malaysian General Election Results. Since the bloody callous highly efficient but cautious MOE has not decided to notify us of the date of the results release, we are all impatiently cursing anxious but patiently waiting for MOE to get that figured out.

Ok, people, this update is dated 29th February 2008, and the neither the results nor the notification of the date is out. This means that other than the obvious fact that the already small probability that the release is today is now zero, the probability that the release date is the 3rd and 4th has diminished greatly to less than 5% combined (in other words, don't count on it, but don't count on MOE either). The area of highest probability is on the 6th (as predicted by the algorithm) or 7th with at least 85% probability, 5th is marginally probable, I would give it 5%, and the remaining 5% for a date after the 7th.

My plan, for the information of those already in Singapore, is that I'm leaving on Tuesday night, arriving on Wednesday morning in Singapore. I've got accomodation, so don't worry about that.

An overview of the entry:
This is an entry that will attempt to make an educated guess on the release date of the 2008 Singapore GCE A-Levels results. I cannot assure you that I've not made any faulty mathematical assumption that will undoubtedly thwart the final answers and estimations. I also have to inform you that I'm working with very limited data, which will lead to crude approximations of probabilities. Lastly, I apologise in advance if I've inadvertently led you (the readers) to experience any form of distress, whether due to planning based on the given mathematical results, undue emotional anxiety or in any other unforseen way.

The Algorithm:
I've used the data of the previous release dates of the Singapore A-level results to deduce an algorithm which may describe how the dates were chosen. First, the data is as follows...

6/3/1996 Wed
6/3/1997 Thurs
6/3/1998 Fri
6/3/1999 Sat
4/3/2000 Sat
3/3/2001 Sat
6/3/2002 Wed
6/3/2003 Thurs
5/3/2004 Fri
4/3/2005 Fri
1/3/2006 Wed
2/3/2007 Fri

The possible algorithm which may have been used is this...

The date of release is the 6th of March unless the 6th of March falls on a Monday, Tuesday, Sunday or [Saturday (with effect after 2001)]

If the 6th is a Sunday or [Saturday (after 2001)], the results will be released on the previous "working day" i.e. [Saturday (before 2002)] or [Friday (after 2001)]

If the 6th is a Monday or Tuesday, the results will be released on a random March date (it was Saturday twice, Friday once and Wednesday once).

This algorithm is solely based on the previous years' data, and it is the simplest algorithm possible, taking into account as few variables as possible. My estimation is that there is about a 50% chance that an algorithm is totally non-existant, another 30% that there is such a system, but there are a few errors in the factors, and a 20% chance that it is true.

Assuming the algorithm is true, the 2008 A-level results will fall on the 6th of March since this year, that day is a Thursday.

Additional information:
- A separate analysis on the date of NOTIFICATION of the release reveals that it is quite common for the the notification date to be only 2 days before the release date. The longest recorded gap is 5 days, (it spanned a weekend, 24/2/2006, Friday to 1/3/2006, Wednesday), while the shortest is a gap of 2 days, occuring for all years before 2005)

- If there is no notification today, (25 February) there is a 70% chance that the results will on be released next week. The earliest predicted release is 29 February, a Friday. Previously, when the release date was a Friday, the notification was made once on a Monday, once on a Tuesday, and twice on Wednesday

-Therefore the following probabilities are true based on limited data
P(Notification on x given that results on 29 Feb)
when x (date) is
25/2 = 25%
26/2 = 25%
27/2 = 50%

Do not be thrown off by the large probabilities, the actual probability of that day being the release date is (the given probability x probability that the results are released on the 29th)